TY - JOUR
N2 - The paper evaluates the relationship between the selection of the probability density function and the construction price, and the price of the building's life cycle, in relation to the deterministic cost estimate in terms of the minimum, mean, and maximum. The deterministic cost estimates were made based on the minimum, mean, and maximum prices: labor rates, indirect costs, profit, and the cost of equipment and materials. The net construction prices received were given different probability density distributions based on the minimum, mean, and maximum values. Twelve kinds of probability distributions were used: triangular, normal, lognormal, beta pert, gamma, beta, exponential, Laplace, Cauchy, Gumbel, Rayleigh, and uniform. The results of calculations with the event probability from 5 to 95% were subjected to the statistical comparative analysis. The dependencies between the results of calculations were determined, for which different probability density distributions of price factors were assumed. A certain price level was assigned to specific distributions in 6 groups based on the t-test. It was shown that each of the distributions analyzed is suitable for use, however, it has consequences in the form of a final result. The lowest final price is obtained using the gamma distribution, the highest is obtained by the beta distribution, beta pert, normal, and uniform.
L1 - http://so.czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/115681/PDF/08_ace-2019-0037.pdf
L2 - http://so.czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/115681
PY - 2019
IS - No 3
EP - 112
KW - LCCA
KW - statistical calculations
KW - probability density function
A1 - Rogalska, M.
A1 - Żelazna-Pawlicka, J.
PB - WARSAW UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING and COMMITTEE FOR CIVIL ENGINEERING POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
VL - Vol. 65
DA - 30.09.2019
T1 - Analysis of the distribution influence of the density of cost-forming factors on results of the LCCA calculations
SP - 101
UR - http://so.czasopisma.pan.pl/dlibra/publication/edition/115681
T2 - Archives of Civil Engineering
ER -